Separation from Canada unlikely for a majority of Quebecers
A majority of Quebecers want greater autonomy from the Canadian federal government, although an outright vote on Quebec sovereignty today would fail to win majority support, a new Angus Reid / La Presse poll has found. Results of the online survey of a representative provincial sample indicate that the recent decision of Parti Québécois leader Pauline Marois to focus on “consolidating the authority of provincial jurisdictions” will find a receptive audience in Quebec.
Nearly four-in-five Quebecers (79%) identify at least one area in which they feel Quebec needs more autonomy, with culture being the number one choice (34%), followed by the economy (33%) and taxation (26%).
However, respondents remain deeply divided on the question of Quebec sovereignty. About a third of Quebecers (32%) believe that Quebec has enough sovereignty and should remain part of Canada, 28 per cent think that Quebec should separate from Canada, and 30 per cent say that, while Quebec needs greater sovereignty, it should still remain part of Canada.
Words therefore matter a great deal when it comes to how Quebecers would vote in a referendum. In a controlled experiment, respondents were asked either one of two hypothetical ballot questions on sovereignty. One group (half the sample) received a more nuanced question, similar to the one used in the 1995 referendum, that speaks of Quebec becoming sovereign after negotiations with the federal government. The other group (half the sample) received a more direct question that asked whether Quebec should separate from Canada.
Within the group that pondered the more nuanced question, 40 per cent of respondents say they would vote yes, 41 per cent say they would vote no and 19 are undecided. Within the group that received the more direct question, 34 per cent say they would vote yes, 54 per cent say they would vote no, and 13 per cent are undecided.
Remarkably, only one-in-five Quebecers (20%) believe that it is either very likely or moderately likely that Quebec will one day separate from Canada. The proportion climbs to 50 per cent among respondents who believe Quebec should become its own country, indicating that even for many sovereignists, an independent Quebec remains an improbable reality. Regardless, interest in a referendum on sovereignty runs high, with 79 per cent of Quebecers responding they would absolutely vote in a referendum if one were held tomorrow.
Respondents also clearly see Quebec as being distinct from the rest of Canada. Four-in-five respondents (82%) agree that Quebec’s society is distinct from the rest of Canada. Even a majority of Anglophones (51%) agree with this statement.
When asked to identify the Canadian province that best understands Quebec’s culture and society, 42 per cent of respondents select New Brunswick—the only officially bilingual province in Canada—while only nine per cent select Ontario, which is home to Canada’s largest population of French speakers outside of Quebec according to Statistics Canada.
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