National sales activity rose 2.7 per cent in September when compared to August, and follows three months of stable activity. September’s increase reflects strengthened activity in a number of major markets, led by Toronto. The monthly increase pushed national sales to its highest level since recently tightened mortgage regulations dampened sales earlier this year.

Highlights:

• Sales activity rose 2.7 per cent in September from the previous month.
• Holding in line with the ten-year average, activity during the first nine months of this year pulled ahead of sales over the same period last year.
• The number of newly listed homes held steady when compared to the previous month.
• The national housing market tightened in September from the month before, but remains firmly entrenched in balanced territory.
• The national average price posted the smallest year-over-year increase since January.

Highlights:

• Sales activity was stable from July to August, but posted another big year-over-year gain reflecting weakened demand last summer.
• Year-to-date sales pulled ahead of 2010 levels for the first time this year, and remain in line with the ten-year average.
• The number of newly listed homes was also little changed from July to August.
• The national housing market stayed firmly entrenched in balanced territory.
• There were more balanced local markets in August than at any other time on record.
• The national average price posted another year-over-year gain in August, but has moderated from elevated levels earlier this year.
• Upward skewing of the national average price is diminishing due to fewer expensive sales and a declining share of national activity in Vancouver andToronto.

For a second consecutive month, national home sales activity held steady in August 2011 when compared to the previous month. Among major urban centres, Toronto and Ottawa posted a monthly increase in activity while Calgary, Montreal and Vancouver saw activity decline slightly.

“The housing market in Canada remained on a firm footing in August when compared to volatile financial markets,” said Gary Morse, CREA President. “Through their actions, homebuyers are showing that they remain confident about the stability of the Canadian housing market, and recognize that the continuation of low interest rates represents an excellent opportunity to buy their first home or trade up.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity came in 15.8 per cent above national levels reported one year earlier. This was the largest year-over-year increase since last April, but largely reflects weakened activity one year ago.

A total of 324,030 homes have traded hands via Canadian MLS® Systems so far this year. While this stands only marginally above levels in the first eight months of last year, it nevertheless marks the first time this year that year-to-date activity has pulled ahead of 2010 levels.

As has been the case for much of this year, the year-to-date sales figure continues to run in line with the ten-year average.

The number of newly listed homes nationally was also little changed from July to August. This kept the national housing market firmly planted in balanced territory. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 51.6 per cent in August, unchanged compared to July.

Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 per cent, 70 per cent of all local markets in Canada were in balanced market territory in August – a greater percentage than at any other time on record. There were just 12 buyers’ markets in August, which was the lowest figure so far this year.

The number of months of inventory stood at 6.2 months at the end of August on a national basis, which is little changed from the end of July (6.1 months). The national months of inventory figure has been stable at about six months since April. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in August 2011 stood at $349,916. This is 7.7 per cent above its year-ago level, which marked the low point for 2010.

The national average price has moderated compared to earlier this year, with sales activity in Vancouver, and more recently in Toronto, exerting less of an effect on the national average. Their share of provincial and national sales activity reached unusually elevated levels earlier this year, but has since receded in line with normal seasonal variations.

“Once again, economic and financial market headwinds outside Canada are keeping interest rates lower for longer,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Those headwinds will likely persist until, and indeed after, fiscal quagmires in the U.S. and Europe are resolved. In the meantime, the Bank ofCanada will have ample reason to delay raising interest rates further, which is supportive for the Canadian housing market.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 2.7 per cent above levels reported last May. This was the first year-over-year increase in more than a year, reflecting falling sales activity in May 2010. Activity fell sharply last year between April and July, with May marking the mid-point of that slide. Although activity has been more stable this year, last year’s sales volatility is expected to continue to affect year-over-year comparisons in the months ahead.

Highlights:

• Sales activity held steady from April to May, but posted the first year-over-year gain in over a year due to falling demand in May 2010.
• Year-to-date sales are in line with the ten-year average.
• New listings also remained stable from April to May.
• National housing market remains firmly entrenched in balanced territory.
• National average price is still being skewed upward by historically high sales activity in certain Vancouver neighbourhoods.

A total of 196,749 homes have traded hands via Canadian MLS^® Systems so far this year. This is in line with the ten-year average for year-to-date activity in May.

“The Canadian housing market has seen some big ups and downs in recent years, making national sales activity so far this year look like something of a Goldilocks story by comparison – not too hot, not too cold,” said Gary Morse, CREA’s President. “Since local housing market trends often differ from national trends, buyers and sellers should consult their local REALTOR^® to understand how the housing market is shaping up where they live.”

Seasonally adjusted new residential listings were little changed from April to May, edging up one tenth of a percentage point. The number of newly listed homes fell in Vancouver, Fraser Valley and the Okanagan region in May, offsetting small gains in Toronto andMontreal.

With sales and new listings holding steady on a national basis in May, the resale housing market remained firmly planted in balanced territory. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 52.1 per cent in May, little changed from 52.5 per cent in April.

Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 and 60 per cent, housing markets were balanced in 62 of 101 real estate boards in Canada. Less than half of the rest can be characterized as sellers’ markets, based on a ratio above 60 per cent. “For the most part, sellers’ markets became slightly more balanced than the previous month,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Toronto stood out as an exception, with sales activity there growing faster than new supply.”

The seasonally adjusted number of months of inventory stood at 6.1 months at the end of May on a national basis. This is little changed compared to the six months of inventory at the end of April 2011. The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and is another measure of the balance between housing supply and demand.

The national average price for homes sold in May 2011 was $376,817, up 8.6 per cent from the same month last year. A number of compositional factors skewed the national average price upward in May. These factors include historically high sales activity in selected priceyVancouver neighbourhoods and broadly based price gains in Toronto, where supply remains tight relative to demand. If Vancouver sales are excluded from the calculation, the year-over-year change in the national average price amounts to 5.6 per cent; excludingToronto and Vancouver shrinks the increase to 3.7 per cent.

“Changes in the national average home price reflect variations in home sales activity across and within local markets,” said Klump. “Failure to recognize changes in the mix of sales activity can lead to misinterpretation of average price fluctuations. It can also give rise to faulty predictions of broadly based home price deflation by way of price correction.”

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) national sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service^® (MLS^®) Systems of Canadian real estate Boards was down 14.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in December 2010, which reflects record level sales for the month of December in 2009.  Activity in December 2010 ran slightly ahead of the ten year average for the month

The national trend for monthly sales remained stable in December, with seasonally adjusted sales activity having edged down by less than a percentage point from the previous month.  Led by Calgary, Winnipeg, and Hamilton-Burlington, seasonally adjusted sales activity was up month-to-month in half of local markets. Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal were among the markets that posted a small month-over-month decline in December.

“Overall sales activity has improved in recent months, but the upturn has been uneven among local markets,” said Georges Pahud, CREA President. “Housing market trends often differ due to a number of local factors, so buyers and sellers should consult their local  expert to understand how trends are shaping up in their market.”

National home sales activity improved steadily over the second half of 2010, with seasonally adjusted sales up 18.3 per cent in December compared to the recent low reached in July. As a result, seasonally adjusted activity in the fourth quarter of 2010 rose 12.1 per cent from third quarter levels, and was up less than a percentage point compared to second quarter activity.

“The hand off to 2011 for sales activity in the fourth quarter suggests that the continuation of low interest rates will further support the housing market,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Sales may be starting to plateau in some of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets.  Combined with a pickup in new listings and further interest rate increases, the stage is being set for smaller price gains and a further deceleration in the growth of mortgage debt.”

Some 447,010 homes traded hands over Canadian MLS^® Systems in 2010, down 3.9 per cent from 2009. Annual sales activity was higher than CREA had forecast previously due to stronger than projected sales activity in the fourth quarter.

The number of new residential listings on Canadian MLS^® Systems held steady in December, rising by less than one percentage point on a seasonally adjusted basis. New listings remain 14.2 per cent below the recent peak reached in April 2010.

The housing market remained in balanced territory on a national basis in December, with sales as a percentage of new listings amounting to 55.2 per cent. Just over half of local markets in Canada were in balanced territory in December.

Three-quarters of the remaining local markets are sellers’ markets.  “With activity having returned to healthy levels and a firm floor under prices, many sellers who shied away from the market heading into the summer are expected to list their properties heading into the spring,” said Klump. “Sales in the months ahead are not expected to continue trending upward as steeply as they have in recent months, so an increase in new listings may return many sellers markets to balanced territory.”

The number of months of inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity, and can be used to gauge the balance between housing supply and demand. The seasonally adjusted number of months of inventory stood at 5.8 months at the end of December on a national basis. This was unchanged from November, and remains 1.4 months below where it was in July.

The number of months of inventory in December rose compared to November levels in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Quebec, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, and was down from the previous month in Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and Prince Edward Island.

The national average price for homes sold in December 2010 was $344,551, up two per cent from the same month last year, and stable compared to average price in October and November. About 60 per cent of local markets recorded year-over-year gains in December. Average price was down on a year-over-year basis in 30 per cent of local markets, and remained stable in the remainder.

The annual average price for homes sold via Canadian MLS^® Systems rose 5.8 per cent to $339,030.  Much of the increase reflects compositional factors within and across housing markets that caused average price to be skewed downward in 2009.